Supply and demand: Nursing shortfall predicted to grow

As Australian nurses grapple with sector wide staff shortages, the Department of Health and Aged Care has revealed that demand will continue to outweigh supply for more than a decade.

The Nursing Supply and Demand Study has forecast the workforce shortfall for nurses in Australia over the next 12 years using data collected from a number of sources between 2014 and 2022.

The study looked at nurses across four sectors – aged care, acute care, primary care and mental health –and projected that the workforce undersupply will grow to 70,707 full-time equivalent nurses (FTE) by 2035, with an estimated 79,473 nurses needed to meet demand.

Nurses make up over 40 per cent of Australia's healthcare workers and represent the largest health profession in the country.

Australian College of Nursing (ACN) interim CEO Emeritus Professor Leanne Boyd said governments need to be doing more to build the workforce necessary for the future.

“Nursing is the largest and most geographically dispersed health profession in Australia, with nurses on the front line of health care in communities across the nation," Ms Boyd said.

“Nurses are often the most qualified health professional living and working in many communities, especially in rural and remote areas. In some communities, a nurse is the only health professional.

“The solution is to make better use of nurses at their full scope of practice to provide people with the right care in the right place at the right time, throughout all stages of life.”

The study highlights the need for more young people to enrol in nursing. Although the average age for nurses is predicted to drop slightly, from 43 in 2022 to 42 by 2035, the study shows that the percentage of nurses in their twenties will decrease from 19 per cent in 2022 to 16 per cent by 2035.

The Department of Health and Aged Care's National Nursing Workforce Strategy has been established to address immediate nursing workforce shortages, while also developing strategies aimed at long-term reform.

“A coordinated strategy – maximising the potential of existing federal and state and territory programs and initiatives – is needed to keep nurses in nursing, educate more nurses, and attract nurses back into the profession," Ms Boyd said.

“The National Nursing Workforce Strategy will lead and drive this process.

“Investing in nurses is cost effective and will deliver tangible benefits for governments, the nursing profession, the health system, local communities, and patients.”

A statement from the Department of Health and Aged Care addressed the need for improving the supply, retention and distribution of a quality nursing workforce to ensure Australians have access to health and aged care, when and where they need it.

"By looking at trends and changes in Australia’s population, it is possible to forecast how many nurses are needed in the future and to consider where those nurses are most needed based on location of the population and health outcomes," the representative said.

"The study predicts what could happen if nothing was done to address the supply of and demand for the nursing workforce. The study forecasts an undersupply of nurses over the next 12 years, however there is a range of work underway to improve the supply, retention and distribution of the nursing workforce.

"The Commonwealth and Victoria, in collaboration with all states and territories and the profession, are developing the National Nursing Workforce Strategy, which aims to address workforce challenges and support the nursing profession across all sectors, now and into the future. The Strategy will be a tool for Governments in addressing the projected future shortage."

Read the full Nursing Supply and Demand Study 2023-2025 here.

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